The Black Swan

Curious if anyone has read, or is reading, Taleb's latest book called the Black Swan. In particular, I'm wondering how it applies to the viral dimensions of word of mouth activity. Taleb touches a bit on contagion, but doesn't go far toward application from what I've seen so far.

I'll add more as I shape my own POV about application of Taleb's principles. Just curious if others have considered these points or seen this book yet.

Tags: black, randomness, swan, taleb, viral

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Permalink Reply by Maryann Devine on April 9, 2008 at 1:55pm: What I got from The Black Swan, and also Taleb's Fooled by Randomness are points that should be obvious, but we so often overlook: 1. there are random events that impact WOM and are impossible to predict, and, 2. we don't know what we don't know. It's tempting, and we do it all the time, to draw conclusions about what worked to provoke WOM and why, when we couldn't possibly identify everything that factored into that success. The most significant event may have been completely random and impossible to replicate in a WOM campaign.

As an aside, Taleb's writing style makes reading nonfiction a real pleasure!; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Maury Giles on April 9, 2008 at 4:33pm: Maryann -- agree on all fronts. I think his application guidance of empirical cynicism is key. We can get caught in our own confidence to forget the reality of what we truly don't know. I also think, now reflecting after finishing the book, that he's telling his strategy to be prepared for black swan (unexpected event) the best bet is to be solid in your core (basic marketing blocking and tackling stuff) and then experiment on the extreme edge to be spread out to capture that truly random convergence of events... that gives a real role for experimental WOM-like activity. Then, test things but always question your empirical learning.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Brad Bentz on May 2, 2008 at 1:37pm: Maury,

I red Black Swan recently, and got out of it much the same lessons. His basic approach is that we frequently don't know the probability distribution of an event (such as a WOM campaign), and often the outcomes tend to be more extreme than what you would predict under the "normal curve." Facing this kind of uncertainty, Taleb suggests making lots of small bets. For reasons that cannot be understood in advance, a few may become runaway successes.

For purposes of WOM, I think you are correct that he would advocate a series of small experiments. Hopefully, each experiment/investment creates valuable options that you can capitalize on if a fortuitous event does occur (i.e., a "Black Swan").; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Warren Whitlock on May 16, 2008 at 1:39pm: I rate books by how much they change my life.

On that scale, The Black Swan was easily the best book I read last year. I refer to it often, find the ideas influencing what I say and teach and think about just about everything in a different way.

Especially liked the story of Dr. John and Fat Tony and meeting s in Vegas about risks.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Maury Giles on May 16, 2008 at 3:03pm: Warren -- couldn't agree with you more. I see it in a similar way for me. And... the Vegas part is very memorable and to the point.; ▶ Reply to This